煤炭周报：静待需求发力，春季行情可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is expected to see a recovery in supply, with December production data showing a year-on-year increase of 4.2% and a month-on-month increase of 2.5% [4] - Demand remains weak, leading to a decline in thermal coal prices, with the Q5500 Qinhuangdao thermal coal price at 758 CNY/ton, down 1.3% from the previous week [4] - The report anticipates a U-shaped price trend for thermal coal in 2025, with potential price increases during the summer peak season [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Tracking - Price Analysis: The Q5500 thermal coal price decreased to 758 CNY/ton, while coking coal prices remained stable at 1520 CNY/ton [12][18] - Supply and Demand Analysis: Rail input to Qinhuangdao port decreased by 18.95%, while port throughput increased by 38.72% [35] - Inventory Analysis: Qinhuangdao's coal inventory decreased by 2.49%, while key power plant inventories also saw a reduction [45][48] - International Coal Market: The Newcastle FOB thermal coal price fell by 0.86%, while the IPE Rotterdam coal price rose by 3.85% [52][54] 2. Market Performance - The coal sector increased by 1.64%, underperforming the broader market which rose by 2.31% [59] 3. Important Events Review - Industry News: The National Energy Group announced a coal production target of 620 million tons for 2024, with a sales target of 850 million tons [65] - Company Announcements: China Shenhua reported a 1.4% year-on-year increase in coal production for December 2024 [67]