TongQingLou Catering (605108) 华泰证券·2025-01-19 05:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to face performance pressure during the ramp-up period, with a projected net profit for 2024 ranging from 64.06 to 92.53 million RMB, representing a year-on-year decline of 70% to 79% compared to 2023 [1][2]. - The company plans to accelerate the expansion of its Fu Mao restaurant chain, opening 8 new locations in 2024, which may impact profitability due to high initial investment costs [1][2]. - The report anticipates that the new store ramp-up will conclude in 2025-2026, with a potential recovery in wedding banquet demand, which could significantly enhance profit margins [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts - For 2024, the company expects total revenue of approximately 2.41 billion RMB, with a slight increase of 0.19% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be around 79.85 million RMB, a decrease of 73.74% from 2023 [5][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates have been adjusted to 0.31 RMB for 2024, 0.88 RMB for 2025, and 1.48 RMB for 2026 [3][11]. - The target price has been set at 26.4 RMB, reflecting a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 30 times the 2025 earnings [3][6]. Business Model and Strategy - The company is innovating with the "Fu Mao" hotel model, which combines dining and accommodation services, aiming to capture market share in core urban areas [2][3]. - The introduction of a franchise model for the Fu Mao brand is expected to accelerate store expansion and enhance profitability in the long term [2][3]. Market Position - The company is positioned to benefit from a recovery in the wedding banquet sector and the stabilization of new store performance, which is anticipated to drive growth in 2025 [1][2]. - The report highlights the company's unique composite business model in the restaurant and hospitality sector, which is expected to provide a competitive edge [3][11].