有色金属行业定期报告：美联储降息预期回升，黄金价格震荡上行

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" relative to the market [5] Core Insights - Precious Metals: The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has led to a volatile upward trend in gold prices. Despite strong U.S. non-farm employment data in December, the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields remained strong, limiting the price increase of gold and silver. However, lower-than-expected PPI data and a decrease in core CPI to 3.2% have revived expectations for a rate cut, leading to a rise in precious metal prices. In the medium to long term, geopolitical tensions and central bank gold purchases maintain the long-term investment value of precious metals [2][12][13]. - Industrial Metals: Copper prices have surged due to favorable macroeconomic conditions, although market consumption is weak as the Chinese New Year approaches. The global copper inventory stands at 504,900 tons, down 590 tons from the previous month. The supply-demand balance for copper is tight, providing strong support for prices. In the medium to long term, the expected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increased domestic consumption are likely to push copper prices higher [3][18][20]. - New Energy Metals: Lithium prices remain high, with carbonate lithium prices trending upward. The market is expected to experience a supply-demand imbalance in 2024, but lithium remains a key investment in the electric vehicle supply chain. The report suggests strategic investment opportunities in lithium stocks [4][21][24]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have led to a volatile upward trend in gold prices, with significant individual stocks recommended for investment [2][12][13]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by tight supply and demand, with a notable decrease in global copper inventory. The report highlights several copper mining companies as investment opportunities [3][18][20]. New Energy Metals - Lithium prices are expected to remain high, with strategic investment opportunities identified in lithium-related stocks. The report emphasizes the importance of lithium in the electric vehicle industry [4][21][24]. Other Metals - The report notes a stable supply of rare earth metals, with prices expected to remain high due to increased demand before the Chinese New Year [25][26].