2024年四季度及全年经济数据解析

Economic Overview - In 2024, China's GDP reached 13,490,840 million yuan, growing by 4.2% year-on-year, with a real growth rate of 5.0%[1] - The GDP growth rate for Q4 2024 was 5.4%, showing a significant recovery from previous quarters[3] Sector Contributions - The service sector's contribution to GDP increased from 56.3% in 2023 to 56.7% in 2024, indicating a stronger support role for the economy[2] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing accounted for 16.3% and 34.6% of industrial value added, respectively, marking increases of 0.6 and 1.0 percentage points from the previous year[2] Consumption and Investment - Total retail sales of consumer goods reached 48,789.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5%[25] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 51,437.4 billion yuan, growing by 3.2% year-on-year[36] Industrial Performance - The industrial value added for 2024 grew by 5.8%, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous three quarters[18] - Equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing saw increases of 7.7% and 8.9% in value added, respectively[24] Future Outlook - The macroeconomic policy for 2025 is expected to be more proactive, focusing on boosting domestic demand and addressing potential external shocks[62] - The economy is anticipated to emerge from a price contraction phase, with new productive forces expected to drive growth[62] Risks - Potential risks include geopolitical uncertainties, macroeconomic performance falling short of expectations, and significant fluctuations in overseas markets[63]