宏观点评：经济的长期变化与短期波动

Economic Performance - In Q4 2024, GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, contributing to an annual GDP growth of 5%[4] - December's industrial output increased by 6.2% year-on-year, while the service production index rose by 6.5%[5] - December exports surged by 10.7% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the 6.2% growth in industrial output[9] Consumption and Investment Trends - Final consumption accounted for approximately 55.2% of GDP in 2024, slightly lower than in 2023 but close to pre-pandemic levels[16] - Real estate investment declined by 10.6% year-on-year, marking three consecutive years of significant negative growth[28] - Manufacturing investment rose by 9.2% year-on-year, with high-tech manufacturing sectors seeing increased investment shares[28] Structural Changes - The share of net exports in GDP increased to 3.5%, the highest in recent years, driven by strong export performance[16] - The manufacturing sector's investment share rose from 32.9% in 2021 to 36.4% in 2024, surpassing real estate and infrastructure[31] - Service consumption growth outpaced goods consumption, with service spending increasing by 7.4% compared to 3.6% for goods[20] Risks and Outlook - Short-term economic data for January-February 2025 may face downward pressure due to fewer working days[9] - The resilience of exports and the recovery of domestic consumption are key uncertainties for 2025's economic policy and performance[32] - Geopolitical changes and domestic economic fluctuations remain critical risk factors to monitor[3]