银行业2024年12月金融数据点评：社融增速回升，化债置换持续影响信贷读数

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The social financing growth rate has rebounded to 8.0%, with a total of 32.26 trillion yuan added in 2024, which is a year-on-year decrease of 3.32 trillion yuan. In December 2024, the new social financing was 2.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 924.9 billion yuan year-on-year [6][7] - The issuance of local government special bonds for debt replacement has influenced credit readings, with an estimated 250 billion yuan of local debt replacement completed in November and a larger scale expected in December [7] - The structure of new loans shows a weak performance in corporate loans, while retail loans have shown signs of recovery, particularly in long-term loans due to favorable real estate policies [17][19] Summary by Sections Social Financing - In December 2024, the new social financing was 2.86 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.0%. The total for 2024 was 32.26 trillion yuan, down 3.32 trillion yuan from the previous year [6][7] - The new RMB loans to the real economy in 2024 amounted to 17.05 trillion yuan, a decrease of 5.17 trillion yuan year-on-year, with December's loans at 840.7 billion yuan, down 268.5 billion yuan year-on-year [7][8] Loan Structure - Corporate loans added 490 billion yuan in December, a decrease of 401.6 billion yuan year-on-year, while retail loans increased by 350 billion yuan, up 127.9 billion yuan year-on-year [17][19] - The increase in retail long-term loans was driven by a recovery in real estate sales and a reduction in mortgage rates [19] Deposit Trends - In December 2024, deposits decreased by 1.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year reduction of 1.49 trillion yuan. Notably, non-bank deposits saw a significant decline, possibly due to regulatory changes affecting interest rates [21]