行业研究——周报：原油周报：美国对俄罗斯制裁力度超预期，国际油价继续上涨

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The essence of the current oil price cycle is supply-side dynamics, with some oil-producing countries shifting from market share competition to price support strategies. The U.S. faces production capacity bottlenecks, while OPEC+ countries, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, are engaged in asymmetric negotiations to influence oil prices through production adjustments [6][7]. - The report anticipates that global oil demand will continue to grow in the medium to long term, maintaining a tight supply-demand balance, which supports high oil prices [6][7]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of January 17, 2025, Brent and WTI oil prices were $80.79 and $77.39 per barrel, respectively, reflecting increases of 1.29% and 1.07% from the previous week [5][22]. Oil Price Outlook - The report suggests that U.S. shale oil production faces limitations due to resource degradation and cost inflation. OPEC+ has strong capabilities to maintain high oil prices through production cuts, with a voluntary reduction of 2.2 million barrels per day extended into Q1 2025 [6][7]. Offshore Drilling Services - As of January 13, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs was 379, a decrease of 6 from the previous week. The number of floating drilling rigs increased by 2 to 145 [27]. U.S. Oil Supply - As of January 10, 2025, U.S. oil production was 13.48 million barrels per day, down by 80,000 barrels from the previous week. The number of active drilling rigs was 478, a decrease of 2 [29][30]. U.S. Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude oil processing was 16.647 million barrels per day as of January 10, 2025, down by 255,000 barrels from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 91.70% [31][34]. U.S. Oil Inventory - As of January 10, 2025, total U.S. crude oil inventory was 807 million barrels, a decrease of 1.462 million barrels (-0.18%) from the previous week [40].