银行业2025年信用风险展望："双宽松"下稳中求进“内外兼修”和而不同

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable outlook for the credit quality of the banking industry in 2025, supported by proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - The banking industry is expected to achieve stable credit quality in 2025, with government debt risk mitigation and favorable real estate policies helping to alleviate credit risks in key areas [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of effective service to the real economy and the need for banks to support major strategies and key areas while managing risks in small and medium-sized banks [4][5]. - The overall liquidity of commercial banks is projected to remain sufficient, supported by appropriate monetary policies [38][41]. Summary by Sections Industry Policy - In 2025, regulatory policies will continue to guide the banking industry to effectively serve the real economy, with a focus on supporting major strategies and key areas [3][4]. Operating Scale - The banking sector is expected to see an increase in credit demand due to more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, which will enhance the total credit supply [15][22]. Asset Quality - The overall asset quality of commercial banks is anticipated to remain stable in 2025, aided by government support and favorable policies in the real estate sector [23][30]. Profitability - The net interest margin of commercial banks is expected to continue to be under pressure due to declining market interest rates, which may challenge the profitability stability of regional banks [31][32]. Liquidity Level - The liquidity level of commercial banks is projected to remain adequate, supported by moderately loose monetary policies [38][41]. Capital Adequacy - The capital adequacy ratio of commercial banks is expected to improve, particularly for state-owned large banks, while regional banks will still face urgent capital replenishment needs [42][45]. Debt Financing - The issuance of special financial bonds by banks is expected to remain active in 2025, while the issuance of "perpetual bonds" may decline due to new capital replenishment channels [46][47]. Credit Quality - The overall credit quality of the banking industry is expected to remain stable in 2025, although attention should be paid to the credit quality of banks in economically weaker regions [51][52].