中国物业管理：2025年展望：企稳在望，关注自由现金流改善；下调碧桂园服务评级至卖出 (摘要)

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Country Garden Services has been downgraded to "Sell" due to slower-than-peer business recovery prospects [3] - Ratings for China Resources Mixc Life, Greentown Service, China Overseas Property, and Poly Property are maintained at "Buy" due to their robust and predictable free cash flow generation and attractive valuations [3] Core Insights - The property management (PM) industry is expected to face continued growth challenges until 2027 due to the ongoing downturn in the real estate market, but long-term structural investment themes remain intact [1][9] - The focus on efficiency gains, high-quality expansion, and risk control among PM companies is anticipated to positively impact profit margins and cash flow in the coming years [1][9] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to stabilize, with government policies aimed at boosting consumption and improving liquidity benefiting community value-added services (VAS) [1][16] Summary by Sections Industry Outlook - The PM industry is maturing with a greater emphasis on quality growth and risk control, which is expected to enhance margins and cash flow [9][10] - The property downturn will continue to be a drag on PM growth until 2027, but improvements in consumption and government liquidity are expected to support VAS revenue [9][24] Financial Projections - Earnings forecasts for PM companies have been adjusted, with an average expected revenue growth of 6% and profit growth of 8% from 2024 to 2027 [2][29] - Free cash flow (FCF) generation is projected to improve, with net cash flow ratios expected to rise from 0.6x in 2024 to 1.2x in 2027 [2][30] Valuation Framework - A new valuation framework focusing on FCF generation has been introduced, applying a long-term multiple of 9x for 2027 FCF, with target prices adjusted by -15% to +15% [2][47] - The average target price for coverage PM companies implies a 9x 2025E P/E ratio, reflecting an 8% EPS CAGR from 2025 to 2027 [47]