批零社服行业：12月社零同比+3.7%，延续温和复苏

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Views - In December 2024, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 3.7%, continuing a mild recovery trend. The total retail sales amounted to CNY 4.52 trillion, with a 0.7 percentage point increase compared to November. Excluding automobiles, the retail sales of consumer goods reached CNY 3.95 trillion, growing by 4.2% year-on-year [6][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand opportunities, particularly in the retail sector, where online leaders are reshaping supply chains and improving profitability by closing loss-making stores [6][26] Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - December retail sales in urban areas totaled CNY 3.84 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, while rural areas saw a total of CNY 0.67 trillion, growing by 3.8% [6] - The retail sales of goods in December reached CNY 3.96 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, while dining revenue was CNY 0.55 trillion, growing by 2.7% [6] Category Analysis - In December, the year-on-year growth rates for various categories were as follows: grain and oil food +9.9%, beverages -8.5%, and tobacco and alcohol +10.4%. For discretionary items, cosmetics and gold and silver jewelry saw growth rates of +0.8% and -1.0%, respectively [6][26] - The retail sales growth for building materials, furniture, and home appliances in December was +0.8%, +8.8%, and +39.3%, respectively [6] E-commerce Insights - The e-commerce penetration rate increased by 0.1 percentage points, with the total online retail sales of physical goods for the year reaching CNY 13.08 trillion, a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [6][26] - The e-commerce penetration rate stood at 26.8%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous month [6] Investment Recommendations - For retail, the report recommends companies like Nanji E-commerce, Dashang Co., and Kidswant, highlighting their improved profitability and strategic store closures [6] - In cosmetics, brands with strong momentum and high earnings certainty such as Runben Co., Marubi, and Proya are recommended [6] - In the jewelry sector, companies like Zhou Daxing and Lao Fengxiang are suggested due to the upcoming traditional peak season [6] - For tourism, companies like Jiuhua Tourism and Changbai Mountain are highlighted for potential growth during the early Spring Festival holiday [6] - In the cross-border sector, attention is drawn to quality leading companies expanding their product categories [6]