原油周报：美国对俄罗斯制裁力度超预期，国际油价继续上涨

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The essence of the current oil price cycle is supply-side dynamics, with some oil-producing countries shifting from market share competition to price support strategies. The U.S. is facing production capacity bottlenecks, while OPEC+ countries, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, are engaged in asymmetric negotiations to influence oil prices through production adjustments. The report anticipates that oil prices will remain at mid-to-high levels in the medium to long term due to ongoing supply constraints and increasing demand for oil amid energy transitions [6][7][8]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of January 17, 2025, international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent and WTI prices at $80.79 and $77.39 per barrel, respectively. The EIA's monthly report raised U.S. and global supply forecasts, but a significant drop in U.S. crude oil inventories and new sanctions on Russia have impacted supply dynamics [5][22]. Oil Price Outlook - The report suggests that U.S. shale oil production faces long-term growth limitations due to resource degradation and rising costs. OPEC+ has extended voluntary production cuts, maintaining a strong capacity to influence prices. Despite economic slowdowns and energy transitions, global oil demand is expected to grow over the next 3-5 years, leading to sustained high oil prices [6][7][8]. Offshore Drilling Services - As of January 13, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs was 379, a decrease of 6 from the previous week. The number of floating drilling rigs increased by 2 to 145 [27]. U.S. Crude Oil Supply - As of January 10, 2025, U.S. crude oil production was 13.48 million barrels per day, a decrease of 80,000 barrels from the previous week. The number of active drilling rigs was 478, down by 2 [29][30]. U.S. Crude Oil Demand - As of January 10, 2025, U.S. refinery crude oil processing was 16.647 million barrels per day, down by 255,000 barrels from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 91.70% [31]. U.S. Crude Oil Inventory - As of January 10, 2025, total U.S. crude oil inventories were 807 million barrels, a decrease of 1.462 million barrels (-0.18%) from the previous week. Strategic reserves increased by 500,000 barrels (+0.13%) [40].