机械设备行业跟踪周报:看好景气度上行确定的工程机械,推荐人形机器人量产将近机会
Soochow Securities·2025-01-19 07:00

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, particularly favoring the engineering machinery sector and humanoid robots [1][47]. Core Insights - The engineering machinery sector is expected to see a recovery in demand, with significant growth in excavator operating hours and sales, particularly for large and medium-sized excavators, driven by infrastructure projects and improved funding conditions [1][39]. - The humanoid robot industry is on the verge of mass production, with major players like Tesla planning significant production increases in the coming years, indicating a potential ten-year industrial cycle [2][21]. - The shipbuilding market is experiencing a peak in new orders, with China's shipyards benefiting significantly from this upturn, as evidenced by substantial growth in order volumes and completion rates [4][44]. - The testing services industry is projected to recover in 2025, supported by domestic demand and government debt relief measures, with leading companies expected to outperform the market [5][9]. Summary by Sections Engineering Machinery - December data shows Komatsu's excavator operating hours in China reached 108 hours, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, indicating a recovery in the market [1][14]. - The report recommends companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and LiuGong as key players to watch in this sector [1][39]. Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot industry is set for a production ramp-up, with Tesla's Optimus expected to reach production levels of 1,000 units in 2025, increasing to 50,000 units by 2027 [2][21]. - Key companies in the supply chain include Sanhua Intelligent Controls and Topband, with a focus on the T-chain and Huawei's robotics initiatives [3][21]. Shipbuilding - The global new ship order volume is projected to reach its highest level in 17 years, with China's shipyards capturing a significant market share [4][44]. - China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation is highlighted as a leading player benefiting from this cycle, with substantial revenue growth expected [4][45]. Testing Services - The testing services market in China is valued at approximately 467 billion RMB, with a historical growth rate of about 13% [5][9]. - Leading companies like Huace Testing and Guodian Measurement are expected to see revenue growth outpacing the industry average [5][9]. Gas Turbines - The expansion of AI data centers is driving demand for reliable power sources, with gas turbines positioned as a preferred solution due to their quick construction and stable output [10][30]. - Companies such as Jerry Holdings and Haomai Technology are identified as key beneficiaries in the gas turbine supply chain [10][32]. Lithium Battery Equipment - The lithium battery equipment sector is anticipated to recover as domestic and international demand for electric vehicles increases, with a focus on solid-state battery technology [34][35]. - Key players include Xian Dai Intelligent and Hangke Technology, which are expected to benefit from the resurgence in demand [34][37].