有色、基本金属行业周报：美国核心CPI出现回落，零售数据走弱，推荐关注金、铜、铝机会

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in the US core CPI and weak retail data, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, with potential for an earlier first cut [3][36] - Gold is viewed as a hedge against rising inflation in 2025, with a long-term upward trend expected in gold prices [6][17] - The report indicates that basic metals, including copper and aluminum, have seen price increases due to favorable macroeconomic conditions and anticipated Fed rate cuts [6][38] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX gold rose by 0.83% to $2,740.0 per ounce, while COMEX silver fell by 0.81% to $31.05 per ounce [25] - The gold-silver ratio increased by 1.66% to 88.26, indicating a stronger gold market relative to silver [26] - The report notes that the market is cautious ahead of the Trump administration's policies, which may impact inflation and commodity prices [6][17] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper increased by 1.19% to $9,181.50 per ton, aluminum rose by 4.36% to $2,680.5 per ton, and zinc increased by 2.86% to $2,944.5 per ton [41] - SHFE copper prices rose by 1.69% to ¥76,540.0 per ton, while aluminum increased by 1.61% to ¥20,470.0 per ton [7] - The report anticipates a rebound in copper prices in the first half of 2025 due to increased investment in infrastructure and renewable energy [10][18] Small Metals - Magnesium prices remained stable at ¥17,860 per ton, with steady production levels reported [15] - Molybdenum and vanadium prices showed stability, with ongoing demand from steel manufacturers [16] - The report indicates that the market for small metals is influenced by seasonal demand fluctuations as the Chinese New Year approaches [13]