研究院专题报告：四季度中国经济企稳

Economic Growth - In Q4 2024, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations of 5.1%[1] - The GDP growth rate for Q3 2024 was 4.6%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.6% in Q4 compared to 0.9% in Q3[4] - The annual GDP growth for 2024 was 5%, meeting the target set at the beginning of the year[4] Investment Trends - National fixed asset investment in 2024 increased by 3.2% year-on-year, slightly below the market expectation of 3.4%[5] - Broad infrastructure investment (including electricity) rose by 9.19% in 2024, while manufacturing investment grew by 9.2%[5] - Real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 10.6% in 2024, continuing a downward trend from previous months[5] Industrial Performance - In December 2024, the industrial added value increased by 6.2% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of 5.5%[2] - The industrial capacity utilization rate in Q4 2024 was 76.2%, an improvement from 75.1% in Q3 2024[13] - The manufacturing PMI for December was 50.1, indicating continued expansion in the manufacturing sector[13] Consumer Activity - Retail sales of consumer goods in December grew by 3.7% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 3.5%[3] - The service sector production index increased by 6.5% in December, reflecting a robust performance in the services industry[15] - The urban unemployment rate in December was 5.1%, consistent with the previous year, indicating stability in the labor market[15] Export and Import Dynamics - In December 2024, exports increased by 10.7% year-on-year, significantly higher than the expected 7.1%[14] - Imports saw a modest growth of 1% in December, contrasting with previous declines[14] - The increase in exports to the U.S. was particularly notable, rising by 15.59% year-on-year[14]