食品饮料行业周报：社零数据好于预期，茅台1935坐稳百亿单品

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [8]. Core Insights - The white liquor sector has seen an increase in stock prices due to better-than-expected retail sales data and the easing of previous negative sentiments. The GDP growth for 2024 is projected at 5%, with Q4 expected to grow by 5.4% [5]. - Kweichow Moutai is expected to achieve a revenue of CNY 187.19 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, with a profit of CNY 120.77 billion, up 10.2%. Moutai 1935 is projected to maintain its position as a CNY 12 billion product [5]. - The overall economic data is better than expected, enhancing market confidence, with a focus on the performance during the upcoming Spring Festival [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector has underperformed with a 1-month decline of 6.1%, a 3-month decline of 2.5%, and a 12-month decline of 6.3% [2]. Company News - Kweichow Moutai's 2024 revenue is projected at CNY 187.19 billion, with exports exceeding CNY 5 billion. The company held a workers' representative meeting to discuss production goals [13]. - Wuliangye announced a mid-term dividend distribution of CNY 9.999 billion [13]. - Luzhou Laojiao reported a revenue of CNY 72.845 billion for the first three quarters of 2024 [14]. Investment Views - The white liquor sector is expected to follow a path of "valuation recovery followed by fundamental improvement," with recommendations for high-end brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [5]. - The report highlights three main lines of investment: high-end brands benefiting from both valuation recovery and fundamental improvement, real estate liquor brands showing clear fundamental improvement, and mid-range brands with strong performance certainty [5][7]. Key Company and Profit Forecasts - Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of CNY 73.33 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 19.84 [9]. - Wuliangye (000858.SZ) is also rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of CNY 8.99 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 14.72 [9]. - Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of CNY 10.20 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 11.64 [9].