煤炭行业定期报告：节前日耗下行煤价回落，关注煤企业绩预告

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [7]. Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is currently experiencing a transformation driven by energy policies and safety concerns, suggesting that coal may still be in a golden era. Supply constraints are evident due to strict capacity controls and increasing mining difficulties, particularly in eastern regions [5][6]. - Despite a seasonal decline in electricity consumption as factories close for the holiday, coal demand remains resilient, supported by ongoing economic activity and increasing electricity generation [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong resource endowments, stable performance, and high dividend payouts, particularly those benefiting from coal price fluctuations [6]. Summary by Sections Coal Market Overview - As of January 17, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 758 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton (-1.3%) week-on-week. The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 83.0%, up 1.5 percentage points [3][4]. - The report notes a significant drop in daily coal consumption at power plants, with inventories showing slight increases [3][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The operating rates for coal mines in the three provinces are as follows: Shanxi at 71.5%, Inner Mongolia at 90.2%, and Shaanxi at 92% [37]. - Daily coal consumption at major power plants has decreased to 82.8 million tons, a drop of 4.1% week-on-week [39]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests several investment opportunities based on resource quality, operational stability, and potential for increased dividends. Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [6]. - Companies benefiting from coal-electricity integration and those with production growth potential are also highlighted as attractive investments [6]. Price Trends - The long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) is 693 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 3.0 CNY/ton (-0.4%) and a year-on-year decrease of 17.0 CNY/ton (-2.4%) [25]. - The report indicates that the price of metallurgical coke remains stable at 1600 CNY/ton, while the price of rebar has increased by 3.0% week-on-week [70].