台积电4Q24业绩点评：持续看好AI收入高增长，指引25年资本开支提升

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on AI revenue growth, with a projected capital expenditure increase for 2025 [2][3] - TSMC's 4Q24 revenue reached $26.88 billion, a year-on-year increase of 37.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.4% [3][4] - The company expects a strong growth trajectory for 2025, forecasting a revenue increase of approximately 25% [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 4Q24, TSMC achieved a gross margin of 59.0%, up 6.0 percentage points year-on-year and 1.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - The operating margin was reported at 49.0%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.4 percentage points [3][4] - The net income attributable to shareholders was $374.68 million, a 57.0% increase year-on-year [4] Revenue Guidance - For 1Q25, TSMC projects revenue between $25 billion and $25.8 billion, with a midpoint of $25.4 billion, indicating a quarter-on-quarter decline of 5.5% [3] - The expected gross margin for 1Q25 is between 57% and 59%, with a midpoint of 58% [3] Advanced Process and Demand Distribution - In 4Q24, revenue from 7nm and below processes accounted for 74% of total revenue, with 3nm, 5nm, and 7nm contributing 26%, 34%, and 14% respectively [3] - The high-performance computing (HPC) segment saw a revenue increase of 19% quarter-on-quarter, representing 53% of total revenue [3] Capital Expenditure - TSMC's capital expenditure for 4Q24 was $11.23 billion, an increase of $4.83 billion from 3Q24 [3] - The company anticipates capital expenditures for 2025 to be between $38 billion and $42 billion, with 70% allocated to advanced processes [3] AI-Related Demand - AI-related revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 45% from 2024 to 2029 [3] - AI-related income is projected to account for about 15% of total revenue in 2024, with expectations for it to double in 2025 [3] Global Capacity Planning - TSMC's first Arizona fab using N4 technology began volume production in 4Q24, with additional fabs planned [3] - The company is also expanding its 3nm capacity in Tainan and preparing for 2nm fabs in Hsinchu and Kaohsiung [3]