轻工制造行业定期报告：12月家居社零保持改善，轻纺品类出口抬升

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry manufacturing sector [3]. Core Insights - The home furnishing retail maintained improvement in December, driven by national subsidies, with real estate sales showing positive growth for two consecutive months, indicating a potential recovery in industry sentiment for 2025 [2][4]. - The metal packaging industry is expected to see profit recovery following the acquisition of COFCO Packaging by Aorijin, which will increase its shareholding to 95.83% [2][4]. - Exports in December showed a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, with a notable 15.6% increase in exports to the U.S., suggesting a "rush to export" effect due to tariff expectations [2][4]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - December real estate sales showed a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, while residential construction area decreased by 25.4% year-on-year [4]. - Furniture retail sales in December increased by 8.8% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in the home furnishing sector [4][30]. - Companies to watch include Oppein Home, Sophia, and Zhihong Home, with a focus on the upward trend in the home furnishing sector due to new national subsidies and improved real estate sales [4][30]. Paper and Packaging - As of January 17, 2025, prices for various paper types remained stable, with double glue paper at 5412.5 CNY/ton and boxboard paper at 3775.6 CNY/ton [4][48]. - The paper industry saw a cumulative revenue increase of 3.9% year-on-year from January to November 2024, with a sales profit margin of 3.1% [4][61]. - The acquisition of COFCO Packaging by Aorijin is expected to enhance industry dynamics and profitability [4][7]. Light Consumer Goods - The birth rate in 2024 showed a year-on-year increase of 5.83%, indicating potential growth in demand for baby products [4][6]. - The domestic consumption environment is recovering, with a focus on companies like Morning Glory and Blukoo, which are expected to benefit from improved consumer sentiment [4][6]. Export Chain - In December, China's total export value reached 335.6 billion USD, with furniture and parts exports increasing by 3.1% year-on-year [4][7]. - The shipping cost index showed a slight decrease, indicating potential cost advantages for exporters [4][7]. New Tobacco Products - The report highlights the regulatory trends in the U.S. regarding electronic cigarettes, suggesting a shift towards compliant and harm-reducing products [4][6]. Textile and Apparel - Textile and apparel exports saw a year-on-year increase, with clothing exports up by 6.18% in December [4][7]. - The domestic retail environment for apparel is expected to improve, with a focus on brands like Anta and Li Ning [4][7].