电子行业事项点评：台积电4Q24业绩点评：持续看好AI收入高增长，指引25年资本开支提升

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on AI revenue growth, with a projected capital expenditure increase for 2025 [2][3] - TSMC's 4Q24 revenue reached $26.88 billion, a year-on-year increase of 37.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.4%, exceeding previous guidance [3][4] - The company expects a strong growth trajectory for 2025, with an estimated revenue increase of approximately 25% [3] Financial Performance - In 4Q24, TSMC's gross margin was 59.0%, up 6.0 percentage points year-on-year and 1.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - The operating margin for 4Q24 was 49.0%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.4 percentage points [3][4] - The net income attributable to shareholders was $3.75 billion, a 57.0% increase year-on-year [4] Revenue Guidance - For 1Q25, TSMC projects revenue between $25 billion and $25.8 billion, with a midpoint of $25.4 billion, indicating a quarter-on-quarter decline of 5.5% [3] - The expected gross margin for 1Q25 is between 57% and 59%, with a midpoint of 58% [3] Advanced Process and Application Distribution - In 4Q24, revenue from 7nm and below processes accounted for 74% of total revenue, with 3nm, 5nm, and 7nm contributing 26%, 34%, and 14% respectively [3] - High-Performance Computing (HPC) revenue increased by 19% quarter-on-quarter, representing 53% of total revenue in 4Q24 [3] Capital Expenditure - TSMC's capital expenditure for 4Q24 was $11.23 billion, an increase of $4.83 billion from 3Q24 [3] - The company anticipates total capital expenditure for 2025 to be between $38 billion and $42 billion, with 70% allocated to advanced processes [3] AI Demand - AI-related revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 45% from 2024 to 2029, with AI acceleration card revenue projected to account for about 15% of total revenue in 2024 [3]