策略周观点：第二波上涨可能是慢启动

Core Insights - The report suggests that the second wave of market growth may start slowly, with the period before the Spring Festival potentially being a good buying opportunity due to seasonal patterns indicating February as the best month for Q1 performance [3][7] - It emphasizes that significant changes in economic data and household funding enthusiasm are likely to occur in March and April, making the pre-Spring Festival market position relatively safe for investment [3][7] - The report indicates that if the market experiences only seasonal fluctuations, the volatility will likely be limited, and any substantial upward movement in Q1 will require observation of economic turning points or household funding impacts [3][11] Strategy Perspective - The report highlights that historical data shows Q1 can experience significant volatility, influenced by economic data or household funding changes, with examples from 2008 to 2022 illustrating various market responses to economic conditions [11][12] - It notes that economic expectations are unlikely to change significantly before the Spring Festival, but the potential for change increases afterward, particularly from February to June [12][18] - The report points out that after a decline in trading volume, the initial recovery phase is typically slow, referencing past experiences from 2019 to 2021 where market rebounds were gradual following volume drops [15][18] Market Changes - The report states that all major A-share indices rose this week, with notable gains in the ChiNext 50 (4.76%) and ChiNext Index (4.66%) [22] - It mentions that the global market showed mixed results, with significant gains in European indices while Japanese and Indian markets declined [22][29] - The report also notes a net inflow of 150.57 billion yuan in southbound funds (Hong Kong Stock Connect) this week, indicating continued interest in A-shares [23][34] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on financial and real estate sectors, which are expected to benefit from policy changes, followed by upstream cyclical industries and AI & consumer electronics [18][20] - It suggests that the current market environment favors a gradual accumulation strategy rather than aggressive buying, particularly in light of the anticipated slow start to the next market uptrend [17][18] - The report advises that the investment opportunities in the consumer sector may be limited, focusing on consumption downgrade trends and high dividend attributes [20]