Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the pig farming industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The average price of pigs is expected to decline to 12 yuan/kg in 2025, with quarterly averages projected at 14, 13, 12, and 11 yuan/kg for Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4 respectively [3][24] - Demand for pork is anticipated to remain weak, unable to support prices, while supply continues to be the primary factor influencing prices [3][23] - The industry is experiencing a continuous increase in production capacity, leading to an expected rise in pork supply [4][23] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average price of pigs is projected to drop to 12 yuan/kg in 2025, with a downward trend expected throughout the year [3][24] - The supply side is seeing a consistent increase in production capacity, with the number of breeding sows rising by 9.60% since the end of the large-scale epidemic in February 2023 [4][23] - The current average price for pigs is 15.73 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.41 yuan/kg [24][43] - The cost of pig farming is closely linked to corn and soybean meal prices, with potential fluctuations based on South American harvests [5][25] - The price of piglets has rebounded to 448.1 yuan/head, a 10.7% increase week-on-week, but this is viewed as a short-term supply-demand phenomenon [6][26] - Companies with cost advantages and expansion capabilities are recommended for investment, as they are likely to perform better in a challenging market [7][28] Pet Economy - The pet hospital market in first-tier cities is becoming saturated, leading to price competition, while second-tier cities present significant growth opportunities [9][30] Outdoor Sportswear - The sales performance in Q4 2024 is expected to improve significantly compared to Q3, driven by consumer stimulus policies and online shopping events [10][32]
农林牧渔行业周报：仔猪价格暴涨难以持续，生猪均价2025年12元波动向下宠物看国内龙头品牌和海外品牌出海
Huaxin Securities·2025-01-19 13:30