工业和能源金属周报：电解铝盈利逐步修复并走阔，持续推荐电解铝板块

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the profitability of electrolytic aluminum is gradually recovering and expanding, with a continuous recommendation for the electrolytic aluminum sector [3][4] - The report emphasizes the macroeconomic factors influencing copper prices, including the weaker-than-expected U.S. core CPI and the resulting expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5] - The report notes a significant decline in alumina prices due to increased supply, while electrolytic aluminum prices are rising, leading to improved profitability in the sector [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The U.S. December core CPI was reported at 3.2%, slightly below expectations, indicating a potential easing of inflationary pressures [12] - The report mentions that the U.S. retail sales for December were also lower than expected, which may impact demand for metals [12] 2. Industrial Metals Copper - Copper prices increased from 75,000 CNY/ton to 76,500 CNY/ton, driven by macroeconomic factors [5] - The operating rate of electrolytic copper rods was reported at 70.46%, a decrease of 5.90 percentage points [5] Aluminum - The price of alumina has accelerated its decline, while electrolytic aluminum prices are rising, leading to a significant recovery in profitability [5] - The report suggests that the aluminum sector may experience a shortage this year, providing upward price potential [5] Lead and Zinc - Lead prices showed a slight decrease, while zinc prices increased by 0.97% [38] - The report indicates that the smelting profit for zinc is at -1,004 CNY/ton, reflecting an expanded loss [38] Tin and Nickel - Tin prices decreased by 1.91%, while nickel prices increased by 2.47% [44] - The profitability of domestic nickel enterprises is reported at 6,434 CNY/ton, showing a narrowing profit margin [44] 3. Energy Metals Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices rose by 2.84% to 77,850 CNY/ton, with a noted increase in profitability for lithium extraction [51] - The report highlights that the supply of lithium is tightening, which may lead to price stability in the range of 70,000 to 90,000 CNY/ton [5] Cobalt - The price of cobalt has decreased, with domestic cobalt prices reported at 163,000 CNY/ton [56] - The report indicates a decline in profitability for domestic cobalt smelting plants [56]