TENCENT(00700) 国信证券·2025-01-19 14:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5][20]. Core Views - Tencent is expected to achieve revenue of 169.2 billion yuan in Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9%. The growth is driven by stable growth in online advertising and an increase in gaming revenue [3][6]. - The gaming segment is projected to generate 47 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a 15% year-on-year increase, with domestic game revenue expected to grow by 17% [3][10]. - The advertising revenue is anticipated to reach 34.3 billion yuan, marking a 15% increase year-on-year, supported by the growth of video accounts and improvements in advertising technology [4][15]. - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue is expected to grow by 3% year-on-year, reaching 56 billion yuan, influenced by macroeconomic conditions [16][20]. Summary by Sections Revenue Forecast - For Q4 2024, Tencent's total revenue is projected at 169.2 billion yuan, with a breakdown as follows: - Value-added services: 76.3 billion yuan, up 10% year-on-year - Online games: 47 billion yuan, up 15% year-on-year - Advertising: 34.3 billion yuan, up 15% year-on-year - Financial technology and enterprise services: 56 billion yuan, up 3% year-on-year [8][24]. Profitability - Non-IFRS net profit for Q4 2024 is expected to be 54.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 28% year-on-year increase, with a net profit margin of 32% [4][7][20]. Key Growth Drivers - The gaming segment is benefiting from the release of new games and updates to existing titles, with "DNF" showing strong performance in the iOS rankings [3][10]. - The advertising segment is expected to leverage AI and improved ad technology, with significant potential in WeChat e-commerce, which could generate approximately 50 billion yuan in advertising revenue in the medium term [4][15]. - The financial technology segment is facing challenges due to macroeconomic factors, but is still expected to show modest growth [16][20].