2025年家用电器行业投资策略：景气延续，拾级而上

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the home appliance industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The implementation of the old-for-new policy in 2025 is expected to stimulate continuous demand for upgrades, alongside a recovery in the real estate sector, leading to stable growth in domestic sales [4][36]. - Export performance, particularly for white goods like air conditioners, is anticipated to remain resilient despite potential tariffs and base pressure, driven by demand recovery in North America and emerging markets [4][78]. - Key companies to watch in the home appliance sector include Haier Smart Home, Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Vatti Corporation, Robam Appliances, Roborock Technology, and Feike Electric [4]. Summary by Sections Domestic Sales Outlook - The old-for-new policy is likely to continue in 2025, which is expected to drive upgrade demand, supported by a recovering real estate market [36][48]. - The domestic sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines showed significant growth in the second half of 2024, with air conditioner sales increasing by 28.7% year-on-year in November [15][21]. - The average price of major appliance categories has been rising, benefiting high-end brands due to the policy's impact on consumer choices [52][85]. Export Performance - The overall export value of home appliances increased by 12.6% year-on-year from January to November 2024, with specific categories like air conditioners and refrigerators seeing growth rates of 20.0% and 20.9% respectively [21][68]. - The export production of air conditioners is expected to continue improving in early 2025, with year-on-year growth rates projected at 10.1%, 23.3%, and 10% for January to March [68][78]. - Emerging markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America, are expected to provide additional growth opportunities for exports [76]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively positioning in the home appliance sector due to the ongoing favorable conditions and potential for continued growth in both domestic and export markets [4][85]. - The focus on high-end brands and the expansion of subsidized categories in 2025 are highlighted as key areas for investment [85].