宏观策略周报：期待春季躁动行情开启，关注科技及优质小盘方向

Strategy Overview - The report anticipates the commencement of a spring market rally, focusing on technology and high-quality small-cap stocks [5][13][15] - The A-share market is expected to rebound due to favorable economic data, improved market sentiment, and supportive policies [5][13][15] Market Performance Review - During the week of January 13-17, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.31%, closing at 3,241.82 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 3.73%, closing at 10,161.32 points [7][8] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 11,830.49 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.91% increase from the previous week [7][8] - Small-cap stocks outperformed larger stocks, with the CSI 500 index rising by 4.06% [7][8] Economic Indicators - The GDP growth for 2024 is projected at 5.0%, with the fourth quarter showing a significant improvement at 5.4% year-on-year, up from 4.6% in the third quarter [17] - Fixed asset investment for the year was up 3.2%, with manufacturing investment increasing by 9.2% [17] - Retail sales showed a marginal improvement in December, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [17] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors with high growth potential, particularly technology and self-sufficiency initiatives, including domestic computing power and humanoid robots [15][23] - Consider undervalued small-cap stocks as they are expected to undergo valuation recovery [15][23] - Pay attention to sectors supported by government policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, such as consumer electronics and home appliances [15][23] - The precious metals sector is also highlighted due to rising gold prices amid expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [15][23] Industry Trends - The report indicates that the artificial intelligence sector and humanoid robotics are likely to be key drivers of market growth [15][16] - The performance of small-cap stocks is expected to improve as the impact of earnings forecasts diminishes [15][16] - The report notes a positive trend in the real estate market, with new housing sales showing signs of recovery [18]