有色金属与新材料周报：美通胀预期交易延续，有色金属价格抬升

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (expected to outperform the market index by more than 5% in the next 6 months) [58] Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: Strong U.S. employment data has lowered market expectations for interest rate cuts, potentially reigniting inflation trading. As of January 17, the COMEX gold futures contract rose by 0.83% to $2740 per ounce, and SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 0.3% to 879.12 tons. The U.S. unemployment rate for December 2024 fell to 4.1%, down 0.1 percentage points month-on-month, and up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. The strong employment data has increased inflation expectations, and uncertainty surrounding upcoming policies under the Trump administration has also contributed to a bullish outlook for gold prices [3][4][6]. - Industrial Metals: The continuation of U.S. inflation expectations has led to an increase in non-ferrous metal prices [4]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals Index Trends - As of January 10, 2025, the non-ferrous metals index (000819.SH) closed at 4806.62 points, up 1.8% month-on-month. The precious metals index (801053.SI) rose by 0.1% to 13960.11 points, while the industrial metals index (801055.SI) increased by 2.3% to 1793.46 points. The energy metals index (399366.SZ) rose by 1.6% to 1414.51 points, while the CSI 300 index fell by 1.1% [11]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to remain strong due to the combination of strong employment data, inflation expectations, and policy uncertainties [3][4]. Industrial Metals - Copper: As of January 17, the SHFE copper futures contract rose by 1.7% to 76,540 RMB/ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 108,100 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 240 tons. LME copper inventory was 260,100 tons, down 340 tons month-on-month. The import copper concentrate index was reported at $3.13/ton, with processing fees down by $1.23/ton. The tight supply of copper concentrate is expected to continue, supported by domestic demand recovery and overseas industrialization [6][7]. - Aluminum: As of January 17, the SHFE aluminum futures contract rose by 1.6% to 20,470 RMB/ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory was 440,000 tons, down 15,000 tons month-on-month. The price of alumina has been in a downward trend, and the supply-demand balance is expected to shift, leading to a potential increase in aluminum prices [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the copper and aluminum sectors. For copper, the recommendation is to pay attention to Zijin Mining due to recovering domestic demand and tightening copper concentrate supply. For aluminum, Tianshan Co. is recommended as aluminum prices are expected to rise due to a favorable supply-demand dynamic [7][56].