12月社零报告专题：12月社零同比增速提升，政策支持品类表现较优

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to +10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [61]. Core Insights - In December 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 45,172 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, surpassing the consensus expectation of 3.5% [11][13]. - The rural market continues to outperform urban areas, with rural retail sales growing by 3.8% year-on-year compared to 3.7% in urban areas [13]. - Online consumption growth outpaces offline, with online retail sales of goods and services increasing by 7.2% and 6.5% year-on-year, respectively [14]. - The contribution of goods retail to overall retail sales growth has increased, with goods retail sales totaling 39,623 billion yuan, up 3.9% year-on-year [23]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.3%, leading to a narrowing of the PPI-CPI gap [38]. Summary by Sections Overall Retail Sales - December 2024 retail sales grew by 3.7% year-on-year, with total sales reaching 45,172 billion yuan [11]. - Urban retail sales were 38,445 billion yuan, also growing by 3.7% year-on-year, while rural retail sales reached 6,727 billion yuan, growing by 3.8% [13]. Retail Performance by Category - Goods retail contributed 92% to the overall retail growth, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [23]. - Essential consumption categories saw a year-on-year increase of 7.78%, while discretionary categories grew by 0.58% [29]. Price Trends - CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, while PPI decreased by 2.3%, indicating a narrowing PPI-CPI gap of -2.4% [38]. - Food prices remained stable, with pork prices rising by 12.5% year-on-year [44]. Employment Situation - The urban unemployment rate in December 2024 was 5.1%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [49]. - The unemployment rate for large cities remained stable at 5.0% [50]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor and regional leading brands in the liquor sector due to anticipated demand recovery [58]. - In the cosmetics sector, attention is recommended for domestic brands with strong product matrices and brand power [58].