Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 8.18 CNY [5]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the implementation of the 2025 subsidy policy, which is anticipated to stimulate consumer demand and enhance industry concentration, particularly benefiting leading companies [4]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 0.6 billion, 1.3 billion, and 1.6 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a significant decrease in 2024 due to market conditions [4]. - The company is actively engaging with local subsidy policies and enhancing its product planning and sales structure to capitalize on growth opportunities [3]. Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts a revenue of 23.2 billion CNY for Q4 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%, and an annual revenue of 71.5 billion CNY for 2024, down 6.5% from the previous year [1]. - The expected gross margin for 2024 is approximately 26.28%, a decline of about 2.06 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by increased competition and product pricing [1]. - The company's net profit for 2024 is projected to be between 0.5 billion and 0.7 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year decrease of 84%-88% [1]. Market and Industry Insights - The implementation of the "old-for-new" consumption policy has led to a slight improvement in sales for smart toilets in Q4 2024, as these products are key beneficiaries of the subsidy [2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its participation in subsidy programs and improving its sales channels, both online and offline, to better meet consumer demand [3]. - The report highlights the importance of regulatory compliance and product certification in driving industry standards and concentration [3].
箭牌家居：期待25年国补成效显现