周观点：出口关税预期弱化，浆价温和反弹，新型烟草加速PMTA审核

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a weakening expectation of export tariffs, which supports the rebound of the export chain. The price of pulp is experiencing a mild rebound, and the performance expectations for leading companies in the pulp and paper integration sector are likely to be revised upward. The new consumption sectors, including new tobacco products, smart glasses, and trendy toys, are identified as clear growth directions for increasing penetration rates [3][4]. Summary by Sections Export - Optimistic statements from high-level officials in China and the U.S. have led to a continued weakening of tariff expectations. The furniture retail sales in the U.S. showed a year-on-year increase of 5.3% in December, indicating sustained overseas demand. Companies with strong overseas layouts, such as Yongyi Co., Jiangxin Home, and Gongchuang Turf, are expected to perform well [3]. Pulp and Paper - The price of pulp has seen a mild rebound, with Canadian bleached softwood pulp prices increasing by $10 per ton. European wood pulp inventories have increased by 4.8% month-on-month but decreased by 7.6% year-on-year, maintaining low levels. The report anticipates that the recovery in overseas demand will drive a mild rebound in pulp prices, benefiting companies with integrated pulp and paper operations [3][4]. Home Furnishing - Subsidies for home furnishing products are being implemented, with a 15% subsidy standard for various home products. The residential sales area increased by 4.5% year-on-year in December, while furniture retail sales rose by 8.8%. Companies like Gujia Home and Minhua Holdings are expected to benefit from these trends [3][4]. Consumption - The report notes strong performance in the consumer sector, with companies like Zhongchong and Yiyi showing significant profit growth. The overall internal and external sales profitability is steadily improving [4]. New Tobacco - The PMTA process for new tobacco products is accelerating, with the FDA approving 20 ZYN nicotine pouch products. This indicates a positive trend for the market, with companies like Smoore International expected to benefit from the regulatory changes and market expansion [5]. Packaging - A significant stake in Zhongliang Packaging has been acquired by Aorijin, which is expected to lead to a consolidation in 2025. The report also mentions potential benefits for companies like Yutong Technology from upcoming subsidies for digital products [5].