交通运输行业周报（2025年1月13日-2025年1月19日）：油运运价快速上涨，快递需求持续景气

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The shipping industry is experiencing a rapid increase in oil transportation rates, while express delivery demand remains robust [3] - The airline sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with a long-term supply-demand imbalance driving growth [13] - The express delivery sector shows resilient demand, with terminal prices at historically low levels, indicating limited downside [16] Summary by Sections Shipping and Vessels - The oil tanker newbuilding orders are limited, and the aging fleet is creating supply tightness, with oil transport demand expected to benefit from increased non-OPEC production [13] - The BDTI index for oil transportation increased by 8.5% to 883 points, with VLCC TCE rising by 86.5% [6] - The BDI index rose by 5.6% to 1065 points, driven by the performance of bulk carriers [5] Aviation and Airports - Domestic aircraft will operate in Vietnam, indicating potential growth opportunities in the region [9] - The overall passenger transport volume for civil aviation reached approximately 0.56 billion people in November 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.2% [41] - Boeing is expected to deliver 348 commercial aircraft in 2024, which is only 45.4% of Airbus's delivery volume [10] Express Delivery and Logistics - The express delivery sector saw a year-on-year increase in business volume, with major companies reporting significant growth in revenue and volume [12] - The total express delivery volume reached approximately 43.55 billion pieces, a 10.34% increase week-on-week [11] - Major express companies like SF Express and YTO Express are expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost reduction efforts [16] Road and Rail - In November 2024, road passenger volume increased by 146.48% year-on-year, while freight volume rose by 3.73% [38] - The railway passenger volume also saw a year-on-year increase of 8.76% [38] Market Performance - From January 13 to January 17, 2025, the transportation sector index rose by 2.81%, outperforming the overall market [20] - The logistics sector showed a 3.91% increase, while the shipping sector rose by 4.28% [20]