周报：美联储降息预期小幅回升，我国去年Q4经济动能明显回升

Economic Performance - In Q4 2024, China's GDP growth rate was 5.4%, exceeding market expectations of 5.1% and showing a recovery compared to Q1-Q3 rates of 5.3%, 4.7%, and 4.6%[1] - The nominal GDP growth for the entire year of 2024 was 4.2%, with Q4 nominal growth at 4.6%, indicating a gap between actual and perceived economic performance[3] Sector Analysis - The industrial sector and most services, excluding real estate, outperformed the overall GDP growth, while construction and real estate lagged behind[1] - In Q4 2024, real estate GDP growth turned positive for the first time in six quarters, despite ongoing declines in real estate investment[2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in December 2024 grew by 2.2% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment maintaining a high growth rate of 8.3%[7] - Real estate investment in December 2024 saw a decline of 13.3%, but there were signs of marginal improvement in sales and funding sources for real estate companies[9] External Trade - Exports in December 2024 reached $335.63 billion, a 10.7% increase year-on-year, driven by a "rush to export" effect related to tariff expectations[11] - Imports also turned positive with a 1.0% year-on-year increase, indicating improved domestic demand[12] Monetary Policy Outlook - The expectation for a slight recovery in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is noted, with potential cuts in the first half of 2025[15] - As of January 17, 2025, the DR007 rate rose to 2.12%, reflecting tightening liquidity conditions in the market[13]