【粤开宏观】复盘2024年中国经济，力争2025年一季度“开门红”

Economic Performance - In 2024, China's GDP reached 134.9 trillion yuan, marking a 5% year-on-year growth and surpassing the 130 trillion yuan threshold for the first time[1] - The quarterly GDP growth rates were 5.3%, 4.7%, 4.6%, and 5.4%, indicating a "U-shaped" recovery throughout the year[2] - The nominal GDP growth rate was 4.2%, which was lower than the actual growth rate of 5%, leading to a divergence between macro data and micro perceptions[3] Support and Challenges - Key supports for the economy included a surprising rebound in exports, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, and significant increases in manufacturing investment, which rose by 9.2%[10] - Central government infrastructure investments saw a notable increase, with railway and water management investments growing by 13.5% and 41.7%, respectively[10] - Challenges included sluggish consumer spending, with retail sales growing only 3.5%, and a continued decline in the real estate market, where sales area and investment fell by 12.9% and 10.6% respectively[11] Outlook for 2025 - The report suggests setting a growth target of "double 5" for 2025, aiming for both nominal and actual GDP growth around 5%[3] - Three favorable conditions for Q1 2025 include enhanced policies to boost consumption and investment, accelerated project construction, and signs of stabilization in the real estate market[6] - Risks include unresolved debt and liquidity issues in the real estate sector and potential external shocks from increased tariffs under the new U.S. administration[25]