海外不确定因素阶段性落地，春节行情或已提前启动

Core Insights - The report indicates that the overseas uncertainties are gradually resolving, suggesting that the Spring Festival market may have already begun to rally ahead of schedule [6][16] - It emphasizes that the A-share market's performance in early 2025 will more evenly reflect the impacts of internal and external policies on the domestic economy [6][8] - The report highlights that the focus will shift back to domestic policies following the completion of the 5% economic growth target for 2024, with expectations for stimulus measures from the upcoming Two Sessions [6][7] Market Trends - As of January 17, 2024, 472 listed companies have disclosed earnings forecasts, with 285 issuing warnings and 172 showing positive forecasts, resulting in a positive forecast ratio of only 36.44% [8][10] - The report notes that the current disclosure rate is only 8.76%, significantly lower than the final disclosure rate of 51.45% in 2023, indicating potential changes ahead [8][10] - The A-share market is expected to return to fundamentals as it enters a period of concentrated earnings forecast disclosures [8][10] Sector Analysis - The report suggests that the "barbell strategy" is optimal before the earnings bottom for A-shares, recommending a focus on sectors with significant improvements in fundamentals [10][13] - It identifies high dividend sectors with improved earnings expectations, including logistics, lighting equipment, food processing, cement, non-metallic materials, and state-owned large banks [13][14] - The aerospace sector is highlighted for its growth potential, particularly in commercial space launches and satellite constellation construction, which are expected to drive profit improvements for related companies in 2025 [15][16] Investment Recommendations - The report advises that the internal demand sector and self-sufficiency are likely to become the main themes in the mid-term market [16] - It emphasizes the importance of consumer stimulation and technological innovation as key tasks for 2025 [16]