食品饮料行业周报：燕京啤酒24年盈利强劲增长，五粮液停货挺价政策起效

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - Yanjing Beer is expected to achieve strong profit growth in 2024, with a projected net profit of 1-1.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 55.11%-70.62% [8][11] - The price stabilization policy of Wuliangye has taken effect, indicating a positive trend in the high-end liquor market [8] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in the catering chain and the impact of management changes in beer companies, which may drive future growth [8] Summary by Sections Macro Data Update - In December 2024, the retail sales total, catering income, and retail sales of tobacco and alcohol increased by 3.7%, 2.7%, and 10.4% year-on-year, respectively [12] - The M2 money supply grew by 7.3% year-on-year, with social financing scale reaching 2.85 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.92 trillion yuan year-on-year [16] Liquor Price Data - As of January 17, 2025, the wholesale price of original and bottled Moutai reached approximately 2240 yuan and 2220 yuan, respectively [19] - The prices of mainstream high-end products such as Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 remained stable at around 950 yuan and 860 yuan [19][22] Beer Volume and Price Data - In November 2024, domestic beer production increased by 5.7% year-on-year, although cumulative production from January to November decreased by 1.5% [24] - The average import price of barley in December 2024 was 260 USD/ton, a decrease of 10% year-on-year [28] Dairy Price Data - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas was approximately 3.12 yuan/kg, down 14.8% year-on-year [34] - The average retail prices for milk and yogurt were 12.18 yuan/liter and 15.75 yuan/liter, respectively, with slight decreases from the previous week [38] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - For liquor: Jiuziyuan (603369, Buy), Shanxi Fenjiu (600809, Buy), and Yingjia Gongjiu (603198, Buy) for strong fundamentals [40] - For beer: Yanjing Beer (000729, Buy) and Qingdao Beer (600600, Buy) due to expected recovery in the catering chain [40] - For dairy: Yili (600887, Buy) with potential for profit and valuation growth if milk prices reverse [40]