Air China(601111) 广发证券·2025-01-20 02:56Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A/Accumulate-H" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company is expected to reduce losses in 2024, with a projected net loss of RMB 1.6 to 2.4 billion, while the demand for civil aviation continues to recover, leading to a 21% increase in passenger traffic to 155 million [8][21]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the upcoming Spring Festival travel peak and a long-term improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with profit margins expected to rise in the coming years [8][54]. - The report anticipates a significant recovery in profitability from 2025 onwards, with projected net profits of RMB 7.9 billion and RMB 17.5 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively [54]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2022A: RMB 52.898 billion - 2023A: RMB 141.1 billion - 2024E: RMB 170.453 billion - 2025E: RMB 194.403 billion - 2026E: RMB 216.65 billion - Growth Rate: 2023A to 2024E is 20.8% [2]. - Net Profit Forecast: - 2022A: RMB -38.619 billion - 2023A: RMB -1.046 billion - 2024E: RMB -0.196 billion - 2025E: RMB 7.939 billion - 2026E: RMB 17.536 billion - Growth Rate: 2024E to 2025E is 4148% [2]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2022A: -2.81 - 2023A: -0.07 - 2024E: -0.01 - 2025E: 0.45 - 2026E: 1.01 [2]. - Valuation Metrics: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 16.95 for A-shares and 7.67 for H-shares [2]. Operational Performance - The company achieved a passenger transport volume of 155 million in 2024, a 21% increase year-on-year, with an overall seat occupancy rate of 79.8% [8][9]. - The company’s fleet size increased to 930 aircraft by the end of 2024, reflecting a growth of 2.76% [9]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a favorable supply-demand environment for the airline industry, with expectations of improved pricing power due to regulatory measures and a recovery in business travel demand [28][50]. - The average ticket price for the company is projected to decline by 15.5% in 2024 compared to 2023, but is expected to rebound in subsequent years as the market stabilizes [28][33].