食品饮料行业周报：社零增速改善，节前动销符合预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The social retail sales growth improved, and the pre-holiday sales performance met expectations, with a 3.7% year-on-year increase in social retail sales in December 2024, surpassing market expectations of 3.5% [5][8] - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment in 2025: strong performance certainty with solid fundamentals and channel control, companies benefiting from demand recovery, and those improving management efficiency [5][8] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.04 percentage points during the week of January 13-17, 2025, with the sector rising by 2.10% compared to the CSI 300's 2.14% [16] - Various sub-sectors showed positive trends, with snacks up by 8.54% and beverages down by 7.14% [17][20] 2. Sub-sector Insights - Baijiu: The report highlights the upcoming Spring Festival as a key sales period, with a 10.4% year-on-year increase in tobacco and alcohol consumption in December 2024 [5][8] - Beer: Short-term performance is under pressure, but structural upgrades are expected to continue, with major brands likely to see price stability [9] - Condiments: Ongoing reforms are expected to improve performance, with companies like Haitian Flavor Industry and Zhongju High-tech highlighted for their potential [10] - Dairy Products: The report anticipates a recovery in sales as consumer confidence improves, with a focus on high-end and diversified products [10] - Restaurant Supply Chain: The sector is expected to benefit from favorable policies, with a focus on resilient leading companies [11] - Snacks: The report notes a divergence in performance among snack companies, with a focus on high-potential brands [12] - Food Additives: Demand is gradually recovering, particularly in health-related sectors, with recommendations for companies like Bailong Chuangyuan and Morning Light Biology [13] 3. Investment Recommendations - Baijiu: Recommended stocks include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [14] - Beer: Focus on Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer [14] - Soft Drinks: Highlighting Eastroc Beverage and Nongfu Spring [14] - Condiments: Emphasis on companies with improvement logic like Zhongju High-tech and Haitian Flavor Industry [14] - Dairy Products: Recommendations include Yili and Mengniu [14] - Restaurant Supply Chain: Focus on resilient leading companies [14] - Snacks: Recommendations for companies like Ganyuan Food and Three Squirrels [14] 4. Key Data Tracking - The report tracks various price data, including baijiu prices remaining stable and beer production increasing by 5.7% year-on-year in November 2024 [26][32] - The average price of fresh milk was reported at 3.12 yuan/kg, with slight fluctuations in retail prices for dairy products [36]