Workflow
快递行业月度专题：12月单价环比维持稳定，快递业务量维持高增
Xinda Securities·2025-01-20 03:00

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The express delivery industry experienced a year-on-year growth of 21% in business volume for 2024, with a total of 1,745 million packages delivered [11][19] - The average price per package remained stable in December, with slight declines observed in some companies [5][20] - The report anticipates a growth of 10-15% in the express delivery industry for 2025, driven by the expansion of e-commerce and changes in consumer behavior [6][35] Summary by Sections Industry Situation - The total retail sales of physical goods reached 13.08 trillion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [11] - The e-commerce penetration rate was approximately 26.8%, showing a slight decline of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [11] - The average value per package was about 75 yuan, down 24% year-on-year [11] Company Performance - In December, the business volumes for major companies were as follows: YTO Express at 2.645 billion packages, Yunda at 2.319 billion, Shentong at 2.252 billion, and SF Express at 1.350 billion [19] - For the entire year of 2024, the business volumes were: YTO Express at 26.574 billion, Yunda at 23.782 billion, Shentong at 22.730 billion, and SF Express at 13.262 billion [19] - Market share for 2024 showed YTO Express at 15.2%, Yunda at 13.6%, Shentong at 13.0%, and SF Express at 7.6% [19] Price Situation - In December, the average prices per package were: YTO Express at 2.29 yuan, Yunda at 2.03 yuan, Shentong at 2.02 yuan, and SF Express at 14.55 yuan [20] - Year-on-year price changes were negative for all companies, with SF Express showing a decline of 9.1% [20] Investment Recommendations - For franchise models, the report recommends focusing on Zhongtong Express, Yunda, and YTO Express, while paying attention to Shentong Express [36] - For direct sales models, SF Express is recommended as a leading comprehensive express logistics company, with expectations for improved profitability and cash flow [36]