2024年12月经济数据点评：乘胜追击“5%”，增量政策效应显著

Economic Growth - In 2024, China's GDP is estimated at approximately 134.9 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, surpassing the 4.8% growth in the first three quarters[2] - The fourth quarter saw a significant rebound with a 5.4% year-on-year growth, marking the highest quarterly growth of the year, up 0.8 percentage points from the third quarter[2] Policy Impact - A series of counter-cyclical policies introduced in September 2024 have begun to show effects, leading to improved consumption and production in the fourth quarter[2] - The central economic work conference in December 2024 emphasized maintaining stable economic growth in 2025, with expectations for a fiscal deficit rate of 3.6%-4% and increased issuance of special bonds[2] Income and Consumption - In 2024, the per capita disposable income of residents reached 41,314 yuan, with a nominal growth of 5.3%, and a real growth of 5.1% after adjusting for inflation[2] - The per capita consumption expenditure for residents was 28,227 yuan, showing a nominal growth of 5.3%, but a slight decline in growth rate compared to previous quarters[2] Employment and Unemployment - The average urban unemployment rate in 2024 was 5.1%, a slight decrease from 2023, indicating overall stability in the employment situation[2] Industrial Production - The industrial added value for large enterprises grew by 5.8% year-on-year in December 2024, with manufacturing showing a notable increase of 7.4%[3] - The export delivery value of industrial enterprises increased by 8.8% year-on-year, the highest growth rate since July 2022[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 3.2% year-on-year in 2024, slightly below market expectations, with narrow infrastructure investment increasing by 4.4%[4] - Real estate development investment decreased by 10.6% year-on-year, but the decline is showing signs of narrowing, with sales of commercial housing showing a slight recovery[5] Consumer Market - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.5% year-on-year in 2024, with December's growth exceeding expectations at 3.7%[8] - Categories such as home appliances and communication equipment saw significant growth, with some categories experiencing increases of over 9%[8] Risks and Outlook - Potential risks include slower-than-expected domestic policy implementation and unexpected fluctuations in the global economy[9]