社会服务行业·周观点：社零数据昭示消费回暖，“微信小店&小红书”题材形成共振

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to be higher than that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [1][29]. Core Insights - In December 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 45,172 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.7%. Notably, the restaurant revenue increased by 20.4%, and various retail categories such as tobacco and alcohol, clothing, textiles, jewelry, and sports and entertainment products all saw growth rates exceeding 10%. This indicates a rapid recovery in consumer spending, with multiple consumption policies expected to be introduced in 2025 to further stimulate demand [3][13][16]. - The integration of "WeChat Mini Stores" and "Xiaohongshu" is anticipated to create a synergistic effect, enhancing the social e-commerce ecosystem. Tencent's strategy to develop WeChat as an e-commerce connector over the next five years is expected to attract more merchants and boost e-commerce consumption [3][14][16]. - The global expansion of applications like Xiaohongshu and Douyin is likely to accelerate the overseas market entry of domestic products, with significant discussions around the tiktokrefugee topic on Xiaohongshu indicating a growing interest in international markets [3][15][16]. Market Performance Overview - The social service sector index experienced a weekly increase of 6.39%, ranking first among 31 primary industry indices. The sub-industry performance included tourism and scenic spots at 4.09%, professional services at 2.86%, and hotel and catering at 2.84% [5][12]. - The report highlights that the upcoming Spring Festival will see a surge in cultural and tourism activities, with over 4,000 events planned, which is expected to stimulate consumer demand significantly [17][18]. Investment Themes - Investment Theme 1: The recovery in retail sales and the synergy between "WeChat Mini Stores" and "Xiaohongshu" are expected to create opportunities in the operational, influencer advertising, and marketing sectors [6][16]. - Investment Theme 2: The cultural tourism sector is set to benefit from various initiatives aimed at enhancing supply, with inbound tourism showing significant growth, indicating new market dynamics [19][20]. Industry News Dynamics - The report notes that the pre-prepared food industry is experiencing rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 135% in 2024, reflecting changing consumer preferences [21][22]. - The film market is also projected to perform well during the Spring Festival, with a record number of anticipated viewings, suggesting a robust recovery in the entertainment sector [23].