公用事业行业深度跟踪：评估气温、价格与需求，寻找板块的企稳信号

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report identifies three signals indicating stabilization in the power sector: the proportion of thermal power companies reaching or breaching net asset value, the formation of consistent electricity pricing expectations, and the increasing dividend yield [7][8] - The report highlights that the overall electricity demand remains resilient despite a slight decrease in growth rates due to high temperatures and a high base effect from the previous year [7][15] - The report suggests focusing on two main lines in public utilities: improving profitability from falling energy prices and enhancing valuation stability for assets with consistent earnings [7] Summary by Sections Section 1: December Power Generation Data - In December 2024, the national power generation increased by 0.6% year-on-year, with a total generation of 8,462 billion kWh [15] - The breakdown of power generation shows thermal power decreased by 2.6%, while hydropower, wind, solar, and nuclear power increased by 5.5%, 6.6%, 28.5%, and 11.4% respectively [15][26] Section 2: Policy Review - Multiple provinces have released notifications regarding the 2025 electricity trading framework, including adjustments to pricing mechanisms and trading limits [51][52] Section 3: Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - Recent trends indicate a stabilization in domestic and international coal prices, with coastal power plants showing a slight increase in load [11] - Natural gas prices have started to decline after being relatively high compared to previous years [11][17] Section 4: Key Company Announcements and Market Tracking - Several companies have reported improved performance in the thermal and gas sectors, with notable increases in profits for some [46][47] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring coal prices and electricity pricing agreements to assess future profitability [7][8] Section 5: Company Valuation and Financial Analysis - The report includes a detailed valuation and financial analysis of key companies in the sector, indicating a generally favorable outlook for major players [8]