农林牧渔行业投资策略周报：如何看待生猪公司2024年度出栏数据

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The overall pig output of listed companies in December 2024 showed a month-on-month increase, while the average weight of the pigs decreased by 1.9% [14][17] - The total pig output for 2024 is expected to grow year-on-year, but the growth rate is slowing down [14][16] - The current valuation of the sector is at a historical low, with large breeding companies such as Wens Foodstuffs and Muyuan Foods being recommended [16] Summary by Sections Overall Output and Sales - In December 2024, the total output of commodity pigs from listed companies reached 17.26 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 22.8% and a year-on-year increase of 24.9% [14][15] - The average sales price in December was estimated at 16.03 CNY/kg, a decrease of 3.91% month-on-month [17] - The average weight of pigs sold in November was approximately 109.1 kg per head, down 1.9% month-on-month [17] Key Company Performance - Major companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and New Hope reported December outputs of 8.578 million, 2.041 million, and 1.592 million heads respectively, with month-on-month increases of 34.3%, 4.6%, and 26.3% [14][23] - For the entire year of 2024, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and New Hope had cumulative outputs of 71.61 million, 30.18 million, and 16.53 million heads, with year-on-year changes of +12.2%, +14.9%, and -6.5% respectively [14][23] Market Trends - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 1.8 percentage points, with the feed, fishery, and agricultural product processing sectors showing the highest gains [27] - The average price of lean pigs on January 17 was 15.8 CNY/kg, down 0.8% week-on-week but up 17.9% year-on-year [24][32] - The average price of piglets was 596 CNY/head, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9% [24][37]