周报美联储降息预期小幅回升，我国去年Q4经济动能明显回升

Economic Performance - In Q4 2024, China's GDP growth rate was 5.4%, exceeding market expectations of 5.1% and showing a recovery compared to Q1-Q3 rates of 5.3%, 4.7%, and 4.6%[1] - The construction industry and real estate sector grew slower than the overall GDP growth rate, indicating sector-specific challenges[1] Sector Analysis - Exports showed significant improvement in Q4 2024, with a growth rate of 10.7% year-on-year, attributed to the "rush to export" effect from tariff expectations[2] - Manufacturing investment remained stable with a growth rate of 8.3% in December 2024, despite a slight decline from November[10] - Real estate investment continued to decline at -13.3% in December 2024, although there were signs of marginal improvement in sales and funding sources for developers[11] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales in December 2024 increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with significant contributions from restaurant and retail sectors[3] - The consumer spending tendency was recorded at 68.3%, still below the pre-pandemic level of over 70%[8] Future Outlook - The economic data suggests that China will face challenges in boosting domestic demand in 2025, with reliance on external demand remaining high[3] - The anticipated fiscal stimulus and new consumption policies will be crucial for sustaining economic momentum in 2025[3] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have slightly rebounded, with potential implications for global markets[17] - As of January 17, 2025, the DR007 rate rose to 2.12%, indicating tightening liquidity conditions in the domestic market[16]