食品饮料行业月度聚焦：折扣超市调研反馈

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report focuses on the transformation of snack wholesale stores into discount supermarkets, highlighting the trend towards a new retail model that combines various product categories [7][17] - The food and beverage sector underperformed the market by 1.7 percentage points in December, with a mixed performance across sub-sectors [7][19] - The report identifies three categories of participants in the discount supermarket space: snack wholesale transformations, discount supermarket brands, and core KA transformations [7][22] Summary by Sections Monthly Focus: Discount Supermarket Research Feedback - The transformation of snack wholesale stores into discount supermarkets is discussed, with examples like "Ai Zero Food" and "Lai You Pin" [17][25] - The report categorizes discount supermarket participants into three types: snack wholesale transformations, discount supermarket brands, and core KA transformations [7][22] - The research indicates that the average store size for discount supermarkets is between 150-300 square meters, focusing on community scenarios [22][23] Market Review - In December, the food and beverage sector lagged behind the market, with soft drinks, beer, and snacks showing the highest gains, while processed foods saw declines [7][19] - The report notes a net inflow of 95.4 billion HKD from southbound funds in December, with significant investments in companies like Qingdao Beer and Mengniu Dairy [7][19] - As of the end of December, the valuation of the food and beverage sector was at the 13th percentile since 2010 [7][19] Fundamental Tracking - Moutai's wholesale prices remained stable, while the performance of mass-market products varied [7][27] - The report highlights a 3.7% year-on-year increase in retail sales in December, with significant improvements in the tobacco and alcohol sectors [7][27] - The report tracks raw material costs, noting a decline in most packaging materials and agricultural products, while palm oil and pork prices increased year-on-year [7][27] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the liquor sector, after four years of adjustment, is expected to recover with policy support and economic improvement, recommending stocks like Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu [7][27] - For mass-market products, the report recommends companies such as Tianwei Food and Yanjing Beer, while also highlighting potential in brands like Fuling Zhacai and Haidilao [7][27]