2024年基建投资稳健增长，看好2025年财政积极发力，基建央企经营和估值迎双轮驱动

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market-A" for the construction industry, indicating an expected return that will exceed the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The construction industry is projected to experience steady growth in infrastructure investment in 2024, with a positive outlook for 2025 due to proactive fiscal policies and increased funding support [3][4]. - The report highlights that the total fixed asset investment in China for 2024 is expected to reach 51.44 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with infrastructure investment growing by 4.4% [2][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the "National Nine Articles" and "1+N" policy framework, which aims to enhance market value management and promote cash dividends among listed companies [4][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - In 2024, China's GDP is projected to reach 134.91 trillion yuan, marking a 5% year-on-year growth, with infrastructure investment showing a growth rate of 4.4% [2][14]. - The report notes that the growth rates for narrow and broad infrastructure investments are 4.40% and 9.19%, respectively, with significant contributions from the energy and utilities sector, which saw a 23.90% increase [15][35]. Market Performance - The construction industry experienced a 2.95% increase in stock prices from January 13 to January 17, 2025, with all sub-sectors showing positive performance [17][21]. - The report identifies key stocks to watch, including China State Construction, China Railway Construction, and China Communications Construction, which are expected to benefit from improved operational metrics and market returns [9][28]. Company Announcements - The report includes significant contract announcements, such as China Energy Construction winning a bid for a 62.55 billion yuan project, indicating robust demand in the sector [31]. - It also highlights the performance of various companies, with China Nuclear Engineering reporting a new contract value of 162.37 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.62% [32]. Industry News - The report discusses the ongoing efforts by the China Securities Regulatory Commission to implement policies that enhance market value management and promote high-quality development among central enterprises [33][34]. - It notes that the government is focusing on optimizing the real estate market and increasing investment in major infrastructure projects, which is expected to further stimulate the construction sector [34].