交通运输-航空序列深度研究4：现实与预期的交织

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the aviation industry, highlighting potential recovery in demand and operational strategies of airlines [4]. Core Insights - The report reflects on previous misjudgments regarding the recovery of aviation demand post-pandemic, emphasizing the need to adjust expectations based on economic conditions and oil prices [4]. - It anticipates that changes in economic expectations will significantly influence the aviation sector's fundamentals in 2025, with potential recovery in business travel and personal spending on tourism [4]. - The report identifies key beneficiaries in the aviation sector, including major airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and others [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Review and Reflection - The report reviews past errors in assessing the recovery of aviation demand, particularly underestimating the pace and duration of recovery post-pandemic [4][6]. - It notes that consumer confidence has remained low, impacting both domestic and international travel demand recovery [18][19]. 2. Macroeconomic Summary - The overall economic growth center is currently below 2019 levels, with GDP for 2024 projected at 13,490.84 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.2% year-on-year growth [35]. - The manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors are expected to face price and volume declines in 2024, although there are signs of recovery in orders post-important meetings in September [35][38]. 3. Current Strategies of Airlines - Airlines are adjusting their fleet growth plans, with major airlines like Air China and China Southern Airlines continuing to fall short of initial fleet expansion targets for 2024 [78]. - The report indicates that airlines are adopting a conservative approach to capacity deployment, particularly in the domestic market, to maintain passenger load factors [102][106]. 4. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes that the economic outlook will be a primary driver of aviation demand in 2025, with potential policy changes expected to boost business and leisure travel [4]. - It highlights that airlines may continue to adjust their aircraft acquisition plans in response to ongoing economic conditions, which could enhance supply-side dynamics in the industry [4].