2024年12月美国CPI数据点评：再通胀尚未成立

Economic Indicators - The U.S. CPI for December 2024 showed a nominal year-on-year increase of 2.9%, up from 2.7% in the previous month, and a month-on-month increase of 0.4% compared to 0.3% previously[5] - Core CPI year-on-year growth decreased slightly to 3.2%, below the expected 3.3%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%[5] - Food inflation year-on-year rose to 2.5%, while energy prices saw a significant month-on-month increase of 2.6%[5] Inflation Trends - Core inflation is showing signs of weakening, with core services year-on-year growth dropping from 4.6% to 4.4%[5] - The super core inflation, excluding major housing rents, decreased from 4.25% to 4.05%[5] - The rental price indices indicate a continued downward trend in housing costs, which is expected to further cool core services inflation[5] Market Risks - There are risks of a hard landing for the U.S. economy and a significant rebound in inflation, particularly influenced by potential policy changes under the Trump administration[3] - The current inflationary pressures are primarily driven by lagging price "stickiness," with no clear signs of a fundamental shift towards sustained re-inflation[5]