2024年12月经济数据点评：经济持续恢复，动能仍待夯实
Shanxi Securities·2025-01-20 07:35

Economic Growth - The GDP growth for 2024 is projected at 5.0%, aligning with expectations, with quarterly growth rates of 5.3%, 4.7%, 4.6%, and 5.4% respectively[2] - The first quarter's actual GDP growth was 5.3%, slightly higher than the previous quarter by 0.1 percentage points[5] - The fourth quarter's GDP growth of 5.4% exceeded the expected 5.1%, contributing 1.6 percentage points to the overall growth, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the third quarter[5] Price Trends - The GDP deflator for 2024 showed a year-on-year decline of 0.7%, compared to a decline of 0.5% in 2023, indicating a worsening price trend[6] - The quarterly nominal GDP growth rates were 4.0%, 4.1%, 4.0%, and 7.4% respectively, with the GDP deflator showing a positive growth of 1.9% in the fourth quarter[6] Consumption and Investment - In December, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with a notable 39.3% growth in household appliances and audio-visual equipment sales[7] - Infrastructure investment is expected to grow by 4.4% in 2024, with December's construction growth (excluding electricity) at 6.3%, higher than the previous months[8] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value in December grew by 6.2% year-on-year, benefiting from a low base effect, with production and sales rates improving[9] - The manufacturing investment for 2024 is projected to grow by 9.2%, with significant increases in equipment and high-tech industry investments[8] Real Estate Market - Real estate sales showed signs of recovery, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 12.9% in December, narrowing by 4.2 percentage points since September[11] - The price index for new residential properties in 70 major cities showed a year-on-year decline of 5.7%, indicating a stabilization in housing prices[11] Risks - Potential risks include the possibility that the strength of growth-supporting policies may fall short of expectations and the impact of external policies on domestic demand and monetary policy[3]