宏观周报：等待美国政策基调

Economic Outlook - The domestic economy showed signs of recovery in Q4 2024, primarily driven by policy support, with a GDP growth rate of 5.0% for the year, aligning with government targets[21] - Consumption growth is expected to rebound in 2025, with December retail sales showing a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, consistent with the average growth of 3.43% from 2022 to 2023[7] - Investment in fixed assets saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.2% in December 2024, although this represents a decline of 0.1 percentage points from November[13] Real Estate Market - New home sales in first-tier cities continued to decline, while second and third-tier cities maintained relative stability, with second-tier cities still at seasonal lows[22] - Despite weaker data in second-tier cities, the overall real estate market is not expected to perform worse than in 2024, with a forecasted reduction in the drag from the real estate sector in 2025[22] - The real estate investment growth rate remains low, but the downward trend is slowing, indicating potential stabilization[18] Financial Market Conditions - Overall funding rates have significantly increased, leading to tight liquidity conditions for smaller banks and non-bank financial institutions, which has pressured the bond market[26] - The central bank's actions will be crucial in determining whether liquidity conditions improve, especially as the Lunar New Year approaches[26] - The bond market is expected to remain under pressure in the short term but presents a favorable entry point for trend trading[26] U.S. Economic Indicators - U.S. inflation remains on a downward trajectory, with December CPI at 2.9% year-on-year, and core CPI at 3.2%, both aligning with market expectations[31] - The U.S. economy is still perceived to be in a downward trend, with market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 potentially underestimated[31] - The uncertainty surrounding the upcoming Trump administration adds to the volatility in market expectations[31]