降息落地恐推迟，债市或进入调整：资金紧张战战兢兢跨税，Q4+12月经济数据除投资外均明显好于预期

Economic Data Insights - In December, China's export data exceeded market expectations by approximately 3.4 percentage points, driven by significant increases in imports from the US and ASEAN[6] - The Q4 economic growth rate reached 5.4%, successfully meeting the annual target of 5%[6] - Fixed asset investment saw a decline, particularly in manufacturing and infrastructure, but the year-on-year decline in real estate development investment continued to narrow[6] Financial Market Analysis - The total social financing growth rate stabilized, ending the contraction and remaining flat compared to previous values, indicating an improvement in credit conditions[6] - The market anticipates that the People's Bank of China may delay interest rate cuts due to improving economic data, with the next observation point for potential cuts being March 2025[6] - The bond market is expected to face adjustment pressure if the central bank postpones the interest rate cut schedule, as the current negative carry structure may suppress buying interest[6] Currency and Commodity Trends - The domestic bond market is experiencing volatility, while US Treasury yields have declined, leading to increased fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate[6] - Commodity prices are generally strong, contrasting with previous trends, and the equity market is outperforming the US stock market, indicating potential pressure from the dollar on domestic equities[6]