轻工制造行业2025年度策略：变中求进，危中寻机

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need to seek opportunities amid challenges, focusing on growth-oriented consumer goods and export leaders, while also paying attention to policy-sensitive sectors like home furnishings and paper packaging [6][19][44]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishings - The home furnishings sector is currently facing a downturn due to pressures from consumption and housing delivery, with a significant decline in retail sales observed in Q3 2024 [19][20]. - The "old-for-new" policy is gradually being implemented, providing some support to the sector, with expectations for increased subsidies in 2025 to boost performance of leading companies [28][44]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies such as Oppein Home, Sophia, and Zhigao Home, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated policy support [6][44]. Essential Consumer Goods - The report highlights the growth potential in essential consumer goods driven by new consumption trends and the rise of domestic brands, with companies like Baiya and Dengkang showing promising growth [6][44]. - The report notes that the changing consumer motivations and technological advancements are creating new opportunities in the market [6][44]. Exports - The export sector remains resilient, with leading companies expected to continue their growth despite challenges such as tariff risks and increased competition [6][44]. - The report indicates that the performance of export-oriented companies will vary, with some benefiting from expanding overseas production capabilities [6][44]. Paper Packaging - The paper packaging sector is projected to see a gradual recovery, with expectations of improved profitability as prices stabilize and demand from downstream sectors like electronics and food remains strong [6][44]. - The report recommends focusing on companies like Sun Paper and Yutong Technology, which are well-positioned to benefit from this recovery [6][44].